BC Football 2021: Scenario Review: The Best, The Worst, The Most Likely, and a Hail Mary
Our final predictions will come out the week before kickoff. For now, we take a look at the different paths this year's BC Football team could take.
There are high expectations for Jeff Hafley & Co. for this upcoming 2021 season. We don't remember there being this much momentum and hype around the BC Football program since Matt Ryan was QB1 at the Heights. As you take a look at the four scenarios below, notice that the ceiling for this team is almost nonexistent. The first three games of the season are gimme games, which is why the win total is expected to be higher than previous seasons. The rest of the games seem to be toss up games. The only likely loss is Clemson in Week 5, which is why it seems like almost anything is possible for this team record wise. A few games could swing the season in dramatic fashion. If the Eagles can find a way to win those close games they can go from a middle of the pack team to a Top 25 ACC contender.
Below are all the likely scenarios for this 2021 BC Football Team. These are not our final predictions for the season (we will give those out the week before kickoff), these are just the possible paths that BC could take this season. The win probabilities are from the current 2021 ESPN Football Power Index.
2021 Schedule:
Week 1: COLGATE - WIN - win probability 98%
Week 2: UMASS - WIN - win probability 96%
Week 3: TEMPLE - WIN - win probability 82%
Week 4: MISSOURI - TOSS UP - win probability 60%
Week 5: CLEMSON - LOSS - win probability 4%
Week 6: ***BYE***
Week 7: NC STATE - TOSS UP - win probability 54%
Week 8: LOUISVILLE - TOSS UP - win probability 32%
Week 9: SYRACUSE - WIN - win probability - 73%
Week 10: VIRGINIA TECH - TOSS UP - win probability 46%
Week 11: GEORGIA TECH - TOSS UP - win probability 45%
Week 12: FLORIDA STATE - TOSS UP - win probability 57%
Week 13: WAKE FOREST - TOSS UP - win probability 63%
Worst Case: 6-6
This scenario will forever be known as the "Steve Addazio Scenario." If this happened, all of the hope and momentum with this team and coaching staff would be lost. Anything less than a winning season would pretty much cement BC as mediocre program across the nation. The expectations are high, the schedule is favorable, there is no excuse to not have a winning season.
But do not worry BC Football Fans, unless multiple star players go down to injury, this scenario does not seem very likely.
Most Likely: 8-4
This scenario seems pretty likely and would be considered a successful season. Winning eight games would mean that Hafley was able to win most of the toss up games (4 out of 7) this season and that would definitely show that the program is headed in the right direction. We believe the Eagles would need to win at least eight games to stay on pace with the high expectations and this 8-4 scenario seems to be the most realistic and achievable.
Give or Take a Game:
7-5 Would not be considered a successful season or a failure. This would just be another very average season for the Eagles and everything would feel like nothing really changed from the previous season.
9-3 Would be considered a very successful season. It is amazing how much a single game can turn a season into a special one. Getting to nine wins would most likely put BC into the Top 25. This would be a huge step forward.
Best Case: 10-2
If everything goes right this BC Football Team will be a Top 25 team and a contender in the ACC.
For this to happen, BC would have to improve significantly on defense and the offense would need to be even more dynamic than it was last year. With another year under his belt don't be surprised to see Coach Hafley make significant strides in implementing his defensive scheme with defensive coordinator Tem Lukabu. Also, quarterback Phil Jurkovec and offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. had very limited time to work with each other last year. With limited spring ball and training camp, Jeff Hafley even described last years offense and defense as "very vanilla". Don't be surprised to see significant improvement on both sides of the ball. Offensively expect the amount of different play calls to increase and a more improved run/pass balance. Defensively, "I think you're going to see some new things...", said Coach Hafley.
"I think you're going to see some new things on defense"
If this happened, the Eagles would even have a chance of playing in a New Year Six bowl. Jeff Haflley would probably be up for the Coach of the Year and Phil Jurkovec would most likely have been a significant Heisman Trophy contender all year long.
Hail Mary: 11-1 (BC Wins Atlantic Division)
We call this scenario the "Doug Flutie Scenario", because while the other scenarios are "realistic" and this dream case scenario is the most unlikely, we all know our history. If you are a true BC Football Fan you know that while there is very little hope for an actual National Championship run, anything is possible, and at Boston College Hail Mary plays & prayers are part of our BC culture.
For this scenario to work, the Eagles would need to pull off one of the greatest upsets in BC Football history in week 5 and beat top ranked Clemson. Again, while this seems impossible, remember that BC was up 28-10 late in the second half in last year's game at Death Valley.
At the 2021 ACC Kickoff Jeff Hafley was asked about the Clemson game last year and he responded, "It still pisses me off."
"It still pisses me off." - Jeff Hafley on Clemson Loss
It seems Coach Hafley is on a mission to beat Clemson going all the way back to his days at Ohio State. Could this be the year Jeff Hafley gets his revenge on Dabo Swinney?
If this all happens we are no longer talking about Top 25, we will be talking about if BC is a Top 10 or a Top 5 team. If you really want to get excited, think back to when Matty Ice made Lane Stadium go silent (and the Red Sox had just won Game 2 of the World Series that same night), it is one of the most exciting moments in modern BC Football history. Well this upset would feel even better, Boston College would be trending nationwide, Clemson fans would be sent back to the misery of 2007, the Eagles would be 5-0 for the first time in 14 years, and BC would control their own destiny. After they upset Clemson, as long as BC does not lose more than one game to an ACC opponent the rest of the regular season, they would be headed to Charlotte to compete for the ACC Championship.
Beat Clemson, and anything is possible...
Maybe even a college football playoff birth?
We are the City of Champions after all.
Another duck boat parade for Boston, for Boston.
GO EAGS! #GETIN
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