BC Football 2024: The Best-Case, Worst-Case, Most-Likely-Case, And A Hail Mary
The 2024 Boston College Eagles football team stands at the dawn of a transformative season, entering a new era under head coach Bill O’Brien.
With a solid foundation of talent and leadership, the Eagles look to build upon the momentum from last year’s 7-6 finish, which included a thrilling Fenway Bowl victory over SMU. While optimism runs high, the challenges in the competitive ACC loom large. Will O’Brien’s experience and the team’s potential translate into success? Let’s explore the best-case, worst-case, most-likely-case, and Hail Mary scenarios for the 2024 season.
The State of Boston College Football in 2024
Boston College enters 2024 with renewed energy, thanks to the arrival of Bill O’Brien and a roster brimming with promise. The Eagles showed flashes of brilliance last season, finishing 7-6, and capped the year with a victory in the Fenway Bowl. However, consistency remains the key challenge. This season, the Eagles aim to make a significant leap forward.
At the center of Boston College’s hopes is junior quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who last season became the first BC quarterback to surpass 2,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in a single year. Castellanos, however, has acknowledged that his performance needs improvement. With 14 interceptions and a completion rate of 57.3%, he rated himself a C-minus for his efforts. This offseason, Castellanos has been working diligently with quarterbacks coach Jonathan DiBiaso to sharpen his decision-making and accuracy. His development will be crucial to BC’s success.
The Eagles’ offense has no shortage of weapons. Redshirt junior wide receiver Lewis Bond returns after a strong 2023 season in which he racked up 646 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. He will be complemented by the towering 6-foot-5-inch Texas Tech transfer Jerand Bradley, who offers a major threat in the red zone. Add in Jayden McGowan, Dino Tomlin, and redshirt freshman Reed Harris, and Boston College boasts one of the more dynamic receiving corps in the ACC.
The backfield is equally impressive. Senior running back Kye Robichaux averaged nearly 5 yards per carry last season and will once again be a key factor on the ground. Joining him is versatile transfer Treshaun Ward from Kansas State, who adds experience and agility to the running game.
Defensively, Boston College has much to prove. Last year, the Eagles allowed 30 rushing touchdowns—the most in the ACC—and often struggled to contain opposing offenses. Defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku will once again lead the charge on the defensive line, supported by George Rooks and Cam Horsley. The Eagles need a significant improvement up front if they want to compete with the ACC’s best teams. In the secondary, Amari Jackson, Max Tucker, Victor Nelson, and Bryquice Brown return to form one of the stronger defensive backfields in the conference, aiming to lock down opponents’ passing games.
Check out the notable Boston College players on the Preseason Watch Lists.
Last year, 7 out of 12 regular season games were considered likely wins or toss-up games, and this year 9 out of 12 are considered likely wins or toss-up games, in the other three games BC is expected to lose. Many consider this schedule to be much more difficulty than last year, and it is—but the feeling is that this football program has developed significantly from last year, and the high expectations and the opportunity to have a great season have become more realistic now that Bill O'Brien is at the Heights.
Below are all the scenarios for the 2024 Boston College Football Season. The win probabilities shown are sourced from the current 2024 ESPN Analytics.
2024 Schedule:
Week 1: at Florida State - UNDERDOG 18.7%
Week 2: Duquesne - WIN 97.7%
Week 3: at Missouri - UNDERDOG 12.5%
Week 4: Michigan State - TOSS UP 61.5%
Week 5: Western Kentucky - WIN 79%
Week 6: at Virginia - TOSS UP 47.1%
Week 7: ***BYE***
Week 9: Louisville - TOSS UP 32.2%
Week 10: Syracuse - TOSS UP 63.8%
Week 11: at SMU - UNDERDOG 21.1%
Week 12: North Carolina - TOSS UP 43.7%
Week 13: Pittsburgh - TOSS UP 51.0%
Worst Case: (4-8)
Not going bowling would be the absolute worst-case scenario. Even if they went 5-7 they most likely would still be invited to a bowl game based on their high academic standing. The floor for this team should be around 5 wins so if they somehow were not able to pull off a 5th win—going 4-8 would be the worst.
In the worst-case scenario, Boston College struggles to find consistency, and the issues that plagued the team in 2023 resurface. Thomas Castellanos shows flashes of brilliance but continues to be erratic, throwing costly interceptions and struggling to maintain accuracy under pressure. The offensive line, despite its experience, fails to hold up against top defensive fronts, leading to stalled drives and an inability to sustain a reliable running game.
Lewis Bond and Jerand Bradley have moments of success but struggle to make a consistent impact, while the offense as a whole sputters. On the defensive side, BC continues to have problems stopping the run, and while the secondary holds up in pass coverage, the lack of pressure from the front seven allows opposing offenses to control the tempo.
The Eagles drop several winnable games, including matchups against Syracuse, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, and ultimately finish the season at 4-8. This disappointing outcome puts immediate pressure on O’Brien and would raise some questions about the program’s future direction.
Luckily for BC Football Fans, the worse-case scenario is very unlikely. The floor for this team really should be five wins and a bowl invitation.
Most Likely: (7-5)
Going 7-5 seems to be the most-likely and would definitely be considered a successful season. This would mean that Bill O'Brien was able to take care of business, win most of the toss-up games (at least 4 out of 7), and maybe steal at least one game as an underdog (1 out of 3).
In the most likely scenario, Boston College makes noticeable improvements under Bill O’Brien, and Thomas Castellanos takes a step forward, reducing his turnover rate and becoming a more reliable passer. The offense, led by Lewis Bond and Jerand Bradley, shows the ability to put up points but falters at times against stronger defenses.
The offensive line performs better than last year, allowing BC to establish a steady ground game with Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward. Defensively, the Eagles make strides in stopping the run, but they do continue to struggle against some of the conference’s elite offenses. The secondary remains a strength, helping to keep BC competitive in most games.
Boston College finishes the regular season at 7-5, securing a spot in a mid-tier bowl game. While not a breakout year on paper, fans should absolutely consider this scenario a breakout year for this football program.
It would represent and confirm the feeling that many fans already feel now—that this football program is heading in the right direction and has set the foundation for continued growth under O’Brien’s leadership.
This scenario would also guarantee a winning season and give the Eagles the opportunity to play in a bowl and get to 8 wins for the first time since 2009.
Give or Take a Game:
(6-6) Would still be considered a successful season. Going 6-6 is no longer the "Steve Addazio Scenario". If this team gets to six wins in Coach O'Brien's first year, the momentum will still hold.
(8-4) Would not only be considered a very successful regular season but a breakout season by all fans. Most people can't even remember (or maybe we're too young to remember) the last time BC won 8 games in a single season (2009). This would catapult BC into the ACC contender conversation for the following year.
Best Case: (10-2)
In the best-case scenario, everything comes together for Boston College. Thomas Castellanos refines his game, cutting down on interceptions and improving his accuracy. He emerges as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, seamlessly blending his ability to make plays with both his arm and legs. His connection with Lewis Bond deepens, and Jerand Bradley becomes a dangerous red-zone target, adding another layer to BC’s offensive attack.
The offensive line, anchored by Drew Kendall at center and featuring tackles Ozzy Trapilo and Logan Taylor, holds firm, providing Castellanos with ample protection and opening running lanes for Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward. The balance in the offensive scheme keeps defenses guessing, and BC averages over 30 points per game.
Defensively, the Eagles become a much more formidable unit. Donovan Ezeiruaku and George Rooks anchor a rejuvenated defensive line that stops the run and consistently generates pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The secondary, led by Amari Jackson and Victor Nelson, continues to perform at a high level, making life difficult for opposing receivers and forcing turnovers at key moments.
In this scenario, Boston College capitalizes on its underdog schedule, including pulling off a major upset against either Missouri or their opening Labor Day game against Florida State. They also win the Red Bandana Game against Michigan State, using the momentum to finish the regular season at 10-2. The Eagles find themselves ranked in the Top 25 and secure a bid to a premier bowl game, marking a wildly successful first season under O’Brien and positioning BC as a rising power in the ACC.
This scenario seems to be the ceiling for this team this year and it is giving 2007 vibes.
Hail Mary: (12-0)
We call this scenario the "Hail Mary Scenario" because while the other scenarios are based on reality, this fantasy case scenario is extremely unlikely, but it allows us to reflect on the current state of Boston College. If you are a true BC Football Fan you know that while there is very little hope for an actual National Championship run this year, anything is possible, and at Boston College, Hail Mary plays & National Championships (1940) are part of our beloved history and culture.
In the Hail Mary scenario, Boston College exceeds all expectations and goes undefeated, shocking the college football world. Thomas Castellanos matures into one of the best quarterbacks in the country, slashing defenses with his dual-threat ability while eliminating the mistakes that plagued him in 2023, all while leading the Heisman Trophy debate. The offense, firing on all cylinders, becomes one of the most explosive in the ACC, with Lewis Bond, Jerand Bradley, and Jayden McGowan terrorizing opposing secondaries.
The offensive line remains healthy and dominant throughout the season, giving Castellanos the time he needs to make plays and opening massive lanes for the running game. Defensively, the Eagles become a brick wall, stifling opponents’ rushing attacks and creating turnovers with a relentless pass rush and aggressive secondary play.
Boston College pulls off upsets against, Florida State, Missouri, SMU and Michigan State in the Red Bandana Game, finishing the regular season at 12-0. The Eagles earn a spot in the College Football Playoff, cementing their status as one of the top teams in the nation. Though unlikely, this scenario reflects the ultimate dream for Boston College fans—a return to national prominence and the chance to compete for a championship.
That was fun, and while it almost certainly won't happen this year—there is a dream and urgency to get Boston College back to that place again, and that place seems to be understood by the new leadership.
“I think we have to repeat it every day, repeated actions every single day. Make sure that everybody understands what the standard is at Boston College. Boston College can be good in a lot. It's already an unbelievable academic school. Got a beautiful campus 15 minutes from downtown Boston. Why can't we be good at football? But there's a standard like we have to, you know, we have to play disciplined football. We have to play smart football. We can't play football where we hurt the team. We can't be selfish. We have to be good teammates. We have to understand what it takes to be a good football team. And I think we're on our way. I really do. Boston College can be good in football. We're trying to build that every single day by repeated actions.” — Bill O'Brien
When Gerard Phelan caught Doug Flutie's Hail Mary pass for a touchdown in 1984, for a moment, Boston was a college football town, and Bill O'Brien is on a mission to make that true once again.
For Boston, for Boston!
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